Select Page

Overview for the week and 5-day outlook to Wednesday 19 September 2018

Overview for the week and 5-day outlook to Wednesday 19 September 2018

Visual: Synoptic map of southern Africa for midnight Monday/Tuesday, 10,11 Sep.

Source: South African Weather Service,

What Happened

The visual for this week is a deviation from the usual forward-looking approach by weather watchers. Since nothing is as obsolete as yesterday’s weather, there must be a good reason to choose a synoptic map from the beginning of the week.

Tuesday’s synoptic map, while not extraordinarily complex, is still usefull as it marks a clear turning point in the seasons, from a more typical winter stance, to a fairly static early summer stance on Friday. This rapid transition is characteristic of Namibia’s weather, usually surprising most people how quickly it shifts from late winter to summer.

This week, most of Namibia excepting the coastal plain, has moved into a discernible summer pattern. At the beginning of the week the South Atlantic high pressure cell broke into two cores as it approached the continent. The northern core, offshore the Kunene River mouth, had a 1020 mB reading while the southern core, located about 800 km south of Cape Town, had a standard winter reading of 1024 mB. The southern Indian high with its core some 1500 km south-east of Madagscar, had an impressive (almost mid-winter) reading of 1032 mB.

At the end of the week, however, both cores have moderated considerably. The southern Indian high receded to a normal 1024 mB while the mighty South Atlantic high all but collapses, at least that part close to the continent. The continental high had departed and a weak cold fronted drifted slowly past Cape Agulhas.

The result could be felt across Namibia with daytime temperatures for the first time this season going above 30°C for most of the country except for the coastal towns. The high pressure control during the day was minimal and the daily increasing number of sunshine hours coupled with the sun’s higher angle, steadily increased terrestrial energy.

The only wintery vestige that remained was the north-westerly airflow over the northern Namib with unseasonally dense fog in the early mornings. This was mirrored by relatively cool nights which served as a reminder that high summer conditions have not yet manifested.

This intra-seasonal phase of the local weather makes forecasting very difficult. Whereas relative humidity at surface level was uncommonly high during the winter, it has dipped to below 10% this week causing hayfever symptoms in many people. This very dry air was however restricted to the surface and mid-level atmosphere. For instance, on Tuesday, a very long vapour trail was spotted for the first time, indicating that relative humidity above 30,000 feet must be higher than 60%.

On the northern horizon, things started moving with a well-developed low pressure area covering a about one third of north-western Angola. This may be indicative of the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone shifting southward, but it is a little to early in the season to make that call. Noteworthy is that most of the southern DRC and Western Zambia was still devoid of cloud, corroborating the very low humidity levels in Namibia.

What’s Coming

The same quiet, hot conditions of Thursday and Friday continue during the weekend. There is a budding cut-off low some 500 km south-west of Oranjemund but it will only start having an effect during Sunday night, if at all.

As from Monday, two opposing systems start making an impact. From the south-west, the outer rim of the South Atlantic high will have a cooling effect up to about Walvis Bay and across the southern Namib.

From the north, the first intrusion of unstable air starts from the Kunene River mouth and then gradually spreads to the south-east. The convective activity will be limited to altitudes above 15,000 feet, so although come cloudiness is expected along the entire Angolan border with very hot days in the north, convection will be limited and no rainfall is expected.

These two strongly opposing systems meet along a convergence zone running from Walvis Bay skew across the country to Mata Mata. Nothing is expected to develop in this zone due to the very low humidity levels, while the high’s cooling impact is forecast to remain restricted to south of the Orange River.


About The Author

Sanlam 2018 Annual Results

7 March 2019


Sanlam’s 2018 annual results provides testimony to its resilience amid challenging operating conditions and negative investment markets

Sanlam today announced its operational results for the 12 months ended 31 December 2018. The Group made significant progress in strategic execution during 2018. This included the acquisition of the remaining 53% stake in SAHAM Finances, the largest transaction concluded in the Group’s 100-year history, and the approval by Sanlam shareholders of a package of Broad-based Black Economic Empowerment (B-BBEE) transactions that will position the Group well for accelerated growth in its South African home market.

Operational results for 2018 included 14% growth in the value of new life insurance business (VNB) on a consistent economic basis and more than R2 billion in positive experience variances, testimony to Sanlam’s resilience in difficult times.

The Group relies on its federal operating model and diversified profile in dealing with the challenging operating environment, negative investment markets and volatile currencies. Management continues to focus on growing existing operations and extracting value from recent corporate transactions to drive enhanced future growth.

The negative investment market returns and higher interest rates in a number of markets where the Group operates had a negative impact on growth in operating earnings and some other key performance indicators. This was aggravated by weak economic growth in South Africa and Namibia and internal currency devaluations in Angola, Nigeria and Zimbabwe.

Substantial growth in Santam’s operating earnings (net result from financial services) and satisfactory growth by Sanlam Emerging Markets (SEM) and Sanlam Corporate offset softer contributions from Sanlam Personal Finance (SPF) and Sanlam Investment Group (SIG).

Key features of the 2018 annual results include:

Net result from financial services increased by 4% compared to the same period in 2017;

Net value of new covered business up 8% to R2 billion (up 14% on a consistent economic basis);

Net fund inflows of R42 billion compared to R37 billion in 2017;

Adjusted Return on Group Equity Value per share of 19.4% exceeded the target of 13.0%; and

Dividend per share of 312 cents, up 8%.

Sanlam Group Chief Executive Officer, Mr Ian Kirk said: “We are satisfied with our performance in a challenging operating environment. We will continue to focus on managing operations prudently and diligently executing on our strategy to deliver sustainable value to all our stakeholders. The integration of SAHAM Finances is progressing well. In addition, Sanlam shareholders approved the package of B-BBEE transactions, including an equity raising, at the extraordinary general meeting held on 12 December 2018. Our plan to implement these transactions this year remains on track.”

Sanlam Personal Finance (SPF) net result from financial services declined by 5%, largely due to the impact of new growth initiatives and dampened market conditions. Excluding the new initiatives, SPF’s contribution was 1% down on 2017 due to the major impact that the weak equity market performance in South Africa had on fund-based fee income.

SPF’s new business sales increased by 4%, an overall satisfactory result under challenging conditions. Sanlam Sky’s new business increased by an exceptional 71%. Strong growth of 13% in the traditional individual life channel was augmented by the Capitec Bank credit life new business recognised in the first half of 2018, and strong demand for the new Capitec Bank funeral product. The Recurring premium and Strategic Business Development business units also achieved strong growth of 20%, supported by the acquisition of BrightRock in 2017. Glacier new business grew marginally by 1%. Primary sales onto the Linked Investment Service Provider (LISP) platform improved by 5%, an acceptable result given the pressure on investor confidence in the mass affluent market. This was however, offset by lower sales of wrap funds and traditional life products.

The strong growth in new business volumes at Sanlam Sky had a major positive effect on SPF’s VNB growth, which increased by 7% (14% on a comparable basis).

Sanlam Emerging Markets (SEM) grew its net result from financial services by 14%. Excluding the impact of corporate activity, earnings were marginally up on 2017 (up 8% excluding the increased new business strain).

New business volumes at SEM increased by 20%. Namibia performed well, increasing new business volumes by 22% despite weak economic conditions. Both life and investment new business grew strongly. Botswana underperformed with the main detractor from new business growth being the investment line of business, which declined by 24%. This line of business is historically more volatile in nature.

The new business growth in the Rest of Africa portfolio was 68% largely due to corporate activity relating to SAHAM Finances, with the East Africa portfolio underperforming.

The Indian insurance businesses continued to perform well, achieving double-digit growth in both life and general insurance in local currency. The Malaysian businesses are finding some traction after a period of underperformance, increasing their overall new business contribution by 3%. New business production is not yet meeting expectations, but the mix of business improved at both businesses.

SEM’s VNB declined by 3% (up 6% on a consistent economic basis and excluding corporate activity). The relatively low growth on a comparable basis is largely attributable to the new business underperformance in East Africa.

Sanlam Investment Group’s (SIG) overall net result from financial services declined by 6%, attributable to lower performance fees at the third party asset manager in South Africa, administration costs incurred for system upgrades in the wealth management business and lower earnings from equity-backed financing transactions at Sanlam Specialised Finance. The other businesses did well to grow earnings, despite the pressure on funds under management due to lower investment markets.

New business volumes declined by 13% mainly due to market volatility and low investor confidence in South Africa. Institutional new inflows remained weak for the full year, while retail inflows also slowed down significantly after a more positive start to the year. The international businesses, UK, attracted strong new inflows (up 57%).

Sanlam Corporate’s net result from financial services increased by 4%, with the muted growth caused by a continuation of high group risk claims experience. Mortality and disability claims experience weakened further in the second half of the year, which is likely to require more rerating of premiums in 2019. The administration units turned profitable in 2018, a major achievement. The healthcare businesses reported satisfactory double-digit growth in earnings, while the Absa Consultants and Actuaries business made a pleasing contribution of R39 million.

New business volumes in life insurance more than doubled, reflecting an exceptional performance. Single premiums grew by 109%, while recurring premiums increased by a particularly satisfactory 56%.

The good growth in recurring and single premium business, combined with modelling improvements, supported a 64% (71% on a comparable economic basis) increase in the cluster’s VNB contribution.

Following a year of major catastrophe events in 2017, Santam experienced a relatively benign claims environment in 2018. Combined with acceptable growth in net earned premiums, it contributed to a 37% increase in gross result from financial services (41% after tax and non-controlling interest). The conventional insurance book achieved an underwriting margin of 9% in 2018 (6% in 2017).

As at 31 December 2018, discretionary capital amounted to a negative R3.7 billion before allowance for the planned B-BBEE share issuance. A number of capital management actions during 2018 affected the balance of available discretionary capital, including the US$1 billion (R13 billion) SAHAM Finances transaction. Cash proceeds from the B-BBEE share issuance will restore the discretionary capital portfolio to between R1 billion and R1.5 billion depending on the final issue price within the R74 to R86 price range approved by shareholders.

Looking forward, the Group said economic growth in South Africa would likely remain weak in the short to medium term future, and would continue to impact efforts to accelerate organic growth. The outlook for economic growth in other regions where the Group operates is more promising. Recent acquisitions such as the SAHAM transaction should also support operational performance going forward.

“We remain focused on executing our strategy. We are confident that we have the calibre of management and staff to prudently navigate the anticipated challenges going forward,” Mr Kirk concluded.

Details of the results for the 12 months ended 31 December 2018 are available at