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Inflation down to levels last seen in the first semester of 2015

Inflation down to levels last seen in the first semester of 2015

Consumers’ buying power is still cooling at a rapid rate as indicated by the low headline inflation for September 2019, reading only 3.3% compared to 4.8% in September last year.

Headline inflation was this low the last time in 2015 when in May and June it measured 3%. In April 2015, headline inflation was at its lowest at 2.9% and in the second half of 2015, it hovered in the range from 3.3% to 3.4%.

In the period preceding 2015, headline inflation was in similar territory only in October and December 2010 at 3.2% and 3.1% respectively. In February 2011 headline inflation measured 3.1%, the last time at such a level before it started increasing fast, reaching 7.6% in November 2012.

The Statistician General, Mr Alex Shimuhafeni said on Tuesday the “annual inflation rate for September 2019 slowed from 4.8% recorded in September last year to 3.3% and on a monthly basis it increased from 0.1% to 0.3%”

Despite the slight upward tick in month on month inflation, headline inflation continued its pronounced downward trajectory, down from 3.7% in August this year, and much higher levels around the 4.5% mark earlier in the year. In January, headline inflation still measured a not-insignificant 4.7% but far below the all-time high of 8.2% in January 2017.

Commenting on the latest price movements, Shimuhafeni further said that the continuing slowdown in inflation constitutes a 1.5 percentage point move over the period of one year.

The lower September inflation resulted from “slowdowns recorded in: Transport (from 12.9% to 2.5%), Alcoholic beverages and tobacco (from 5.6% to 3.3%), Health (from 5% to 3.2%), Housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels (from 3.8% to 2%), Miscellaneous goods and services (from 3.9% to 2.7%), Recreation and culture (from 5% to 4%) and Hotels, cafes and restaurants (from 3.6% to 2.8%).”

“The twelve months annual average and monthly average inflation rates from October 2018 to September 2019 stood at 4.4% and 0.3%. Corresponding rates recorded during the same period a year earlier stood at 4.3% and 0.4% respectively.

The average annual and average monthly inflation rates for the period January 2019 to September 2019 were estimated at 4.1% and 0.3% respectively.”


 

About The Author

Daniel Steinmann

Brief CV of Daniel Steinmann. Born 24 February 1961, Johannesburg. Educated at the University of Pretoria: BA, BA(hons), BD. Postgraduate degrees are in Philosophy and Divinity. Editor of the Namibia Economist since 1991. Daniel Steinmann has steered the Economist as editor for the past 28 years. The Economist started as a monthly free-sheet, then moved to a weekly paper edition (1996 to 2016), and on 01 December 2016 to a daily digital newspaper at www.economist.com.na. It is the first Namibian newspaper to go fully digital. Daniel Steinmann is an authority on macro-economics having established a sound record of budget analysis, strategic planning and assessing the impact of policy formulation. For eight years, he hosted a weekly talk-show on NBC Radio, explaining complex economic concepts to a lay audience in a relaxed, conversational manner. He regularly helps economics students, both graduate and post-graduate, to prepare for examinations and moderator reviews. He is the Namibian respondent for the World Economic Survey conducted every quarter for the Ifo Center for Business Cycle Analysis and Surveys at the University of Munich in Germany. He is frequently consulted by NGOs and international analysts on local economic trends and developments. Send comments to [email protected]