Tracking good macroeconomic performance
Namibia ‘s macroeconomic performance compared to other countries in a similar stage of development, remains promising. According to the Macroeconomic Framework quaterly review, global economic prospects have picked up over the last six months. This has a favourable impact on the local economy.
The Review says “The fact that economic growth exceeded expectations in 2012 suggests that the Namibian economy is more resilient to external developments than initially anticipated. Real GDP growth forecasts have been revised up. Economic activity is now projected to expand by 4.5% in both 2013 and 2014, before further expanding by 4.6% in both 2015 and 2016. This is in line with the forecasts of 4.3% growth in both 2013 and 2014 and 4.4% in both 2015 and 2016.
This growth comes despite a downward revision in primary sector growth in anticipation of weaker output in crop farming and forestry following the drought. On the back of strong growth of 5.9% in 2012, the secondary sector is expected to expand at an even more rapid pace in 2013, carried by strong activity in construction growth. The forecast shows that in 2014 however, growth in the secondary sector is expected to slow down. This is despite stronger growth in manufacturing and a significant acceleration in electricity and water output. Growth in a number of tertiary industries has been revised up to bring them more in line with their trend growth .
“Regionally, growth in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) remained generally robust in 2012, recording growth of 4.8% as investment remained strong, commodity prices remained favourable and governments continued to follow prudent macroeconomic policies . South Africa was estimated to have grown largely in line with the projections made in the Macroeconomic framework in 2012, but the 2.5% expansion posted during the year marked a slowdown from the 3.5% growth recorded in 2011.
Although global growth prospects have improved in the wake of recent policy actions in Europe and the United States, the pace of global economic recovery will remain moderate, held back by on-going challenges in Europe.