Guest Contributor | May 17, 2019 | 0
Local economist expects growth to stall again in 2020
The Namibian economic situation remains concerning, a young economist told his audience at the recent Stanlib annual Asset Management Roadshow hosted in Windhoek and at the coast.
Rowland Brown of Cirrus Capital said “Over the past two years the economy has not expanded and we have very low growth and real stagnation, especially with regards to unemployment. One in three willing and able-bodied Namibians are unemployed and one in two youngsters do not have work and to me this is a crisis.”
“The Namibian Government is in an extremely difficult situation as the income forecast was far below than what they thought. Government debt has ballooned from N$16 billion in 2010 and is forecast to be N$100 billion in 2020,” he said.
Brown continued, “We are spending more than what we are earning and this is very unhealthy and not sustainable. Further, several considerations have also raised red flags with potential investors – both local and international – and make them think twice about investing in Namibia. These include NEEF, NIPA, tax changes, expropriation, rent control, rising populism and socialism with a Namibian flavour. While we actually forecast a very low growth this year – around 1.2% – we also forecast that growth will drop to half a percent by 2020 again.”
Stanlib Namibia’s Managing Director, Taimi Shejavali confirmed the gloomy outlook, saying that based on discussions with many financial advisors and brokers, it came to the fore that some of the biggest challenges currently faced by advisors and brokers are that of managing the low returns on client investments and the requirement to generate positive real returns while avoiding an erosion of capital.
“As an industry and a business, we have seen a significant shift of new investments as well as existing assets into cash and low risk fixed interest assets and funds. While we know that in the current market cycle it has reflected well in terms of clients’ returns compared to traditional Balanced funds, we all agree that clients have to be invested in growth assets over the long term to meet their long terms savings requirements,” she said.
Another presenter, Melanie Verwoerd, gave guests an update and her views and insights on the political landscape of southern Africa, especially in light of the upcoming May elections in South Africa. She is of the opinion that the ANC will win the elections, although margin predictions are very difficult, and that Cyril Ramaphosa will remain President.
“When Ramaphosa and the ANC remain in power, I believe that he might cut back on the public sector wage bill, sort out Eskom very quickly with unbundling, reduce the cabinet and keep fighting corruption – all great indicators for a better South Africa. I also believe that expropriation of land without compensation will not happen. I am confident about the future with President Ramaphosa at the helm, as he is anti-corruption, has a totally different energy and understands markets, economy and business,” she said.
As last speaker Sylvester Kobo highlighted the key points which could impact the Fixed Interest market and linked these points back to the Stanlib outlook for Fixed Interest this year and specifically the Standard Bank Namibia Income Fund.
“We have consistently positioned our Fixed Interest business and more specifically our SBN Income Fund as a possible solution to consider for inclusion in our clients investment portfolios, as firstly a good alternative to cash as well as a diversifier to reduce the risk within our clients’ portfolios.” The return on the SBN Income Fund is at approximately 9.4% (on par with the MSCI Emerging Equities) at a significantly lower risk level.
Caption: Local presenter at the Stanlib Asset Management Roadshow, Rowland Brown (centre left) and the Stanlib Managing Director, Taimi Shejavali (centre right) with Sylvester Kobo, Portfolio Manager of Fixed Income Funds, Abri Blaauw, the acting Head of Distribution at Stanlib Namibia, Patrick Mamathuba, Executive Stanlib Africa and Melanie Verwoerd, an independent South African analyst.