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Banks look solid though credit risk rising

Namibian banks are in good shape in terms of profitability and capital adequacy and have high-quality liquid assets. At the same time, on the credit risk side, credit loss ratios remain low, according to the PSG 2015 Banking Review which was released last week.
The annual Review compares Namibian and listed South African, Botswana and Zambian banks.
“Banks play a critical role in our economic growth and development, as they enable the provision of financial services to businesses and consumers,” says Brian van Rensburg, director of PSG in Namibia. Total Namibian banking assets accounted for 59% of GDP at the end of December 2014.
These assets are mainly in the form of loans and advances. The Report found that gross advances represent approximately 77% of the total assets at December 2014 while mortgages constitute 32% of total assets or 48% of total advances. On the liabilities side, deposits account for about 90% of total banking liabilities.
Local banks continue to rely greatly on interest as the major source of their income. Net interest income accounts for between 53% and 60% of total income at the most recent year ends that PSG analysed.
“We are continuing on in a rising interest rate cycle which will be characterised by higher interest rate margins, but also by slower credit growth and rising credit losses,” van Rensburg says. “The extent of the slowdown in advances and rising credit losses will very much depend on the strength of the cycle.” Although credit risk did deteriorate slightly, credit losses are still well below industry accepted levels.
Going forward PSG doesn’t see a strong interest rate cycle given the pressure on the consumer, a lack of business confidence and sluggish economic growth.
On balance, the company believes that local banks are well positioned to benefit from the current cycle through higher margins. However, van Rensburg says that the quality of loan books will be tested. “We are concerned about the increasing ratio of mortgage loan books that are in early arrears, a trend at all of the local banks.”
Drawing a comparison between local banks and SA banks, the PSG Report reflects superior results for local banks over SA banks in terms of net interest margins, ROE (Return on Equity) ROA (Return on Assets), and credit quality. However, the trend is that SA banks’ credit quality is improving, while Namibian banks are seeing headwinds in that regard.
Although some of the banks experienced margin pressure over the last 5 years, net interest margins (NIM) have been resilient, and local banks have benefitted from the rising interest rate environment.
What also emerged from the analysis is that Namibia’s two listed banks – FNB and Bank Windhoek- stand out in terms of ROA and ROE. While the unlisted banks are slightly lagging in terms of these metrics, these ratios remain at very acceptable levels.
Despite having the smallest market share in terms of assets NedNamibia has managed to retain market share and outperformed in terms of EPS (Earnings per Share) growth over the last 7 years on the back of strong non-interest growth. They have also shown good performance in cost efficiency and credit quality.
Standard Bank Namibia gained heavily in the net interest income department over the last year and has managed to make up on some of the longer term growth numbers for revenue. They have however lagged with cost efficiency and have breached the acceptable 60% cost-to-income ratio since FY12. As a result, ROE has gradually declined over the last 5 years to below 20% in FY14. Nevertheless, most of SBN’s key ratios compare well with SA banks, but there is clearly room for improvement in its cost efficiencies.
“The outlook for local banks remains positive. Although the unlisted banks are slightly lagging in some performance metrics, they remain profitable, well capitalised with good credit quality. Going forward, we believe technological advancements will be key for local banks to maintain market shares and remain competitive,” van Rensburg concludes.

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Sanlam 2018 Annual Results

7 March 2019

 

Sanlam’s 2018 annual results provides testimony to its resilience amid challenging operating conditions and negative investment markets

Sanlam today announced its operational results for the 12 months ended 31 December 2018. The Group made significant progress in strategic execution during 2018. This included the acquisition of the remaining 53% stake in SAHAM Finances, the largest transaction concluded in the Group’s 100-year history, and the approval by Sanlam shareholders of a package of Broad-based Black Economic Empowerment (B-BBEE) transactions that will position the Group well for accelerated growth in its South African home market.

Operational results for 2018 included 14% growth in the value of new life insurance business (VNB) on a consistent economic basis and more than R2 billion in positive experience variances, testimony to Sanlam’s resilience in difficult times.

The Group relies on its federal operating model and diversified profile in dealing with the challenging operating environment, negative investment markets and volatile currencies. Management continues to focus on growing existing operations and extracting value from recent corporate transactions to drive enhanced future growth.

The negative investment market returns and higher interest rates in a number of markets where the Group operates had a negative impact on growth in operating earnings and some other key performance indicators. This was aggravated by weak economic growth in South Africa and Namibia and internal currency devaluations in Angola, Nigeria and Zimbabwe.

Substantial growth in Santam’s operating earnings (net result from financial services) and satisfactory growth by Sanlam Emerging Markets (SEM) and Sanlam Corporate offset softer contributions from Sanlam Personal Finance (SPF) and Sanlam Investment Group (SIG).

Key features of the 2018 annual results include:

Net result from financial services increased by 4% compared to the same period in 2017;

Net value of new covered business up 8% to R2 billion (up 14% on a consistent economic basis);

Net fund inflows of R42 billion compared to R37 billion in 2017;

Adjusted Return on Group Equity Value per share of 19.4% exceeded the target of 13.0%; and

Dividend per share of 312 cents, up 8%.

Sanlam Group Chief Executive Officer, Mr Ian Kirk said: “We are satisfied with our performance in a challenging operating environment. We will continue to focus on managing operations prudently and diligently executing on our strategy to deliver sustainable value to all our stakeholders. The integration of SAHAM Finances is progressing well. In addition, Sanlam shareholders approved the package of B-BBEE transactions, including an equity raising, at the extraordinary general meeting held on 12 December 2018. Our plan to implement these transactions this year remains on track.”

Sanlam Personal Finance (SPF) net result from financial services declined by 5%, largely due to the impact of new growth initiatives and dampened market conditions. Excluding the new initiatives, SPF’s contribution was 1% down on 2017 due to the major impact that the weak equity market performance in South Africa had on fund-based fee income.

SPF’s new business sales increased by 4%, an overall satisfactory result under challenging conditions. Sanlam Sky’s new business increased by an exceptional 71%. Strong growth of 13% in the traditional individual life channel was augmented by the Capitec Bank credit life new business recognised in the first half of 2018, and strong demand for the new Capitec Bank funeral product. The Recurring premium and Strategic Business Development business units also achieved strong growth of 20%, supported by the acquisition of BrightRock in 2017. Glacier new business grew marginally by 1%. Primary sales onto the Linked Investment Service Provider (LISP) platform improved by 5%, an acceptable result given the pressure on investor confidence in the mass affluent market. This was however, offset by lower sales of wrap funds and traditional life products.

The strong growth in new business volumes at Sanlam Sky had a major positive effect on SPF’s VNB growth, which increased by 7% (14% on a comparable basis).

Sanlam Emerging Markets (SEM) grew its net result from financial services by 14%. Excluding the impact of corporate activity, earnings were marginally up on 2017 (up 8% excluding the increased new business strain).

New business volumes at SEM increased by 20%. Namibia performed well, increasing new business volumes by 22% despite weak economic conditions. Both life and investment new business grew strongly. Botswana underperformed with the main detractor from new business growth being the investment line of business, which declined by 24%. This line of business is historically more volatile in nature.

The new business growth in the Rest of Africa portfolio was 68% largely due to corporate activity relating to SAHAM Finances, with the East Africa portfolio underperforming.

The Indian insurance businesses continued to perform well, achieving double-digit growth in both life and general insurance in local currency. The Malaysian businesses are finding some traction after a period of underperformance, increasing their overall new business contribution by 3%. New business production is not yet meeting expectations, but the mix of business improved at both businesses.

SEM’s VNB declined by 3% (up 6% on a consistent economic basis and excluding corporate activity). The relatively low growth on a comparable basis is largely attributable to the new business underperformance in East Africa.

Sanlam Investment Group’s (SIG) overall net result from financial services declined by 6%, attributable to lower performance fees at the third party asset manager in South Africa, administration costs incurred for system upgrades in the wealth management business and lower earnings from equity-backed financing transactions at Sanlam Specialised Finance. The other businesses did well to grow earnings, despite the pressure on funds under management due to lower investment markets.

New business volumes declined by 13% mainly due to market volatility and low investor confidence in South Africa. Institutional new inflows remained weak for the full year, while retail inflows also slowed down significantly after a more positive start to the year. The international businesses, UK, attracted strong new inflows (up 57%).

Sanlam Corporate’s net result from financial services increased by 4%, with the muted growth caused by a continuation of high group risk claims experience. Mortality and disability claims experience weakened further in the second half of the year, which is likely to require more rerating of premiums in 2019. The administration units turned profitable in 2018, a major achievement. The healthcare businesses reported satisfactory double-digit growth in earnings, while the Absa Consultants and Actuaries business made a pleasing contribution of R39 million.

New business volumes in life insurance more than doubled, reflecting an exceptional performance. Single premiums grew by 109%, while recurring premiums increased by a particularly satisfactory 56%.

The good growth in recurring and single premium business, combined with modelling improvements, supported a 64% (71% on a comparable economic basis) increase in the cluster’s VNB contribution.

Following a year of major catastrophe events in 2017, Santam experienced a relatively benign claims environment in 2018. Combined with acceptable growth in net earned premiums, it contributed to a 37% increase in gross result from financial services (41% after tax and non-controlling interest). The conventional insurance book achieved an underwriting margin of 9% in 2018 (6% in 2017).

As at 31 December 2018, discretionary capital amounted to a negative R3.7 billion before allowance for the planned B-BBEE share issuance. A number of capital management actions during 2018 affected the balance of available discretionary capital, including the US$1 billion (R13 billion) SAHAM Finances transaction. Cash proceeds from the B-BBEE share issuance will restore the discretionary capital portfolio to between R1 billion and R1.5 billion depending on the final issue price within the R74 to R86 price range approved by shareholders.

Looking forward, the Group said economic growth in South Africa would likely remain weak in the short to medium term future, and would continue to impact efforts to accelerate organic growth. The outlook for economic growth in other regions where the Group operates is more promising. Recent acquisitions such as the SAHAM transaction should also support operational performance going forward.

“We remain focused on executing our strategy. We are confident that we have the calibre of management and staff to prudently navigate the anticipated challenges going forward,” Mr Kirk concluded.

Details of the results for the 12 months ended 31 December 2018 are available at www.sanlam.com.